Customers are used to evaluate preliminary product designs. In the past, 95% of

Question

Customers are used to evaluate preliminary product designs. In the past, 95% of highly successful products received good reviews, 60% of moderately successful products received good reviews, and 10% of poor products received good reviews. In addition, 40% of products have been highly successful, 35% have been moderately successful, and 25% have been poor products. What is the probability that a product attains a good review? If a new design attains a good review, what is the probability that it will be a highly successful product? If a product does not attain a good review, what is the probability that it will be a highly successful product?

Explanation / Answer

a) P(good review) =0.95*0.4+0.6*0.35+0.1*0.25=0.615

b) P(highly successful given good review) =0.95*0.4/0.615=0.618

c)P(not good review)=1-0.615=0.385

P(highly sucessful given not good review)=0.05*0.4/0.385=0.0519

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