The Boston Celtics have won 16 NBA championships over approximately 50 years. Th

Question

The Boston Celtics have won 16 NBA championships over approximately 50 years. Thus it may seem reasonable to assume that in a given year the Celtics win the title with probability p = 0.32, independent of any other year. Given such a model, what would be the probability of the Celtics winning eight straight championships beginning in 1959 Also, what would be the probability of the Celtics winning the title in 10 out of 11 years, starting in 1959 Given your answers, do you trust this simple probability model

Explanation / Answer

P(celtics winning) = 0.32

P(celtics losing) = 1-0.32 = 0.68

Probability of celtics winning 8 straight championships = 0.328 = 0.0001

Probability of celtics winning 10 out of 11 years

= 11x0.3210x0.68 = 0.000084

I trust this simple probability model. This model cannot exactly predict what will be the outcome, especially in matters such as sports. But still, on a long run, given enough number of trials, we will be able to notice that the results tends towards the one predicted as per the simple probability model.

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