Mos-Def Corporation has recruited Bobcat Consulting (BC) to build a sales foreca
ID: 3195767 • Letter: M
Question
Mos-Def Corporation has recruited Bobcat Consulting (BC) to build a sales forecasting model for their new line of headphones, which features a new technology for wirelessly shifting from one music source to another. After collecting sales data for the first 5 quarters after introduction, BC estimated a Bass diffusion model of the form:
The sales for the first 5 quarters look like this:
a. What is the forecast for quarter 6 using the Bobcat model? Show all your calculations.
b. Was the Bass model able to predict the downturn in sales when it occurred? Explain.
Sl-340+ 0. 12Yt-1-0.00005%!Explanation / Answer
a)
forecast for Q6 = 397.42
b)
No , in fact it increased (410.195 from 410) when there was decrease of 40 units
this is because this model considers Yt-1 i( cumulative sales up to the end of t-1) hence effect of decrease is marginalized
Q sales cumulative prediction 1 275 275 2 345 620 369.21875 3 380 1000 395.18 4 390 1390 410 5 350 1740 410.195 397.42Related Questions
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