Problem 1 Demand for a certain product for the last 30 weeks is given below. Wee
ID: 3177873 • Letter: P
Question
Problem 1
Demand for a certain product for the last 30 weeks is given below.
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
1
800
11
1700
21
2400
2
1400
12
1500
22
2600
3
1000
13
2300
23
2000
4
1500
14
2300
24
2500
5
1500
15
2000
25
2600
6
1300
16
1700
26
2200
7
1800
17
1800
27
2200
8
1700
18
2200
28
2500
9
1300
19
1900
29
2400
10
1700
20
2400
30
2100
Forecast demand for week 31 using,
a)3 week moving average
b)9 week moving average
c)exponential smoothing with = 0.2 (assume perfect forecast to initialize)
d)exponential smoothing with = 0.8 (assume perfect forecast to initialize)
e)fitting a trend line
f)calculating seasonal relatives
g)calculate the error measures to compare the above listed methods.
Problem 2
Here are quarterly data for the past two years. From these data, prepare a forecast for the upcoming year using seasonal relatives and trend.
Quarter
Demand
1
300
2
540
3
885
4
580
5
416
6
760
7
1191
8
760
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
Week
Demand
1
800
11
1700
21
2400
2
1400
12
1500
22
2600
3
1000
13
2300
23
2000
4
1500
14
2300
24
2500
5
1500
15
2000
25
2600
6
1300
16
1700
26
2200
7
1800
17
1800
27
2200
8
1700
18
2200
28
2500
9
1300
19
1900
29
2400
10
1700
20
2400
30
2100
Explanation / Answer
1 a) 3-week moving average = (2500 + 2400 + 2100)/3 = 2333.33
b) 9-week moving average = (2100+2400+2500+2200+2200+2600+2500+2000+2600)/9 = 2344.44
c) exponential smoothing with = 0.2
2279.85114
d)exponential smoothing with = 0.8 (assume perfect forecast to initialize)
Week Actual Demand Forecast Demand Week Actual Demand Forecast Demand Week Actual Demand Forecast Demand 1 800 800 11 1700 1429.65663 21 2400 1986.78512 2 1400 800 12 1500 1483.7253 22 2600 2069.4281 3 1000 920 13 2300 1486.98024 23 2000 2175.54248 4 1500 936 14 2300 1649.58419 24 2500 2140.43398 5 1500 1048.8 15 2000 1779.66735 25 2600 2212.34718 6 1300 1139.04 16 1700 1823.73388 26 2200 2289.87775 7 1800 1171.232 17 1800 1798.98711 27 2200 2271.9022 8 1700 1296.986 18 2200 1799.18969 28 2500 2257.52176 9 1300 1377.588 19 1900 1879.35175 29 2400 2306.01741 10 1700 1362.071 20 2400 1883.4814 30 2100 2324.81393 312279.85114
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