Refer to Figure 15. Calculate a three period moving average forecast for the mon

Question

Refer to Figure 15. Calculate a three period moving average forecast for the months of July, August, and September 2011. Using the observed data and your forecasted values, calculate the MAPE for this forecasting method over those three months. Select the correct answer from the list given.

0.3%

2.1%

5.7%

6.2%

9.2%

18.9%

0.3%

2.1%

5.7%

6.2%

9.2%

18.9%

Figure 15. Observed unemployment rates for a twelve month period are shown in the table below Unemployment Year Month Rate Oct 8.8 2010 8.9 Nov 8.9 Dec 9.1 2011 Jan 9.2 Feb 9.3 Mar 9.6 Apr 9.5 May 9.4 Jun 9.2 Jul Aug 9.3 91 Sep Oct

Explanation / Answer

fromabove

hence MAPE =0.021*100 =2.1%

year month unemployed rate %(A) forecast(F) |A-F|/A 2010 Oct 8.8 Nov 8.9 Dec 8.9 2011 Jan 9.1 Feb 9.2 Mar 9.3 Apr 9.6 May 9.5 Jun 9.4 Jul 9.2 9.5 0.032609 Aug 9.3 9.37 0.007168 Sep 9.1 9.3 0.021978 total 0.061755 mean 0.020585

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