Hamilton County Judges Hamilton County judges try thousands of cases per year. I

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Hamilton County Judges Hamilton County judges try thousands of cases per year. In anoverwhelming majority of the cases disposed, the vadict stands as rendered. However, some cases are appealed. and of those appealed, some of the cases are reversed. Kristen DelGuzziof The Cincinnati Enquirer conducted a study of cases handled by Hamilton County judges over a three- year period. Shown in Table 48 are the results for 182908 cases handlod disposed) by 38 judges in Common Pleas Court. Domestic Relations Court, and Municipal Court. Two of the judges (Dinkelacker and Hogan did not serve in the same court for the entirethroe- year period. The purpose of the newspaper's study was to evaluate the performance of the judges. Appeal are often the result of mistakes made by judges, andthenewspaper wanted toknow which judges ware doing a good job and which ware making too many mistakes. You ae called in to assist in the data analysis. Use your knowlodge of probability andconditional probability tohelp with the ranking of the judges. You also may be able to analyze the like- lihood of appeal and reversal for cases handled by different courts. Managerial Report Prepare a report with your rankings of the judges. Also, include an analysis of the likeli hood of appeal and case reversal in the three courts. At a minimum. your report should include the following: 1. The probability of cases being appealed andrevarsedinthethree different courts. 2. The probability of acase being appealed for cach judge. 3. The probability of acase being reversed for each judge. 4. The probability of reversal given an appeal for each judge. 5. Rank the judges within each court. State the criteria you used and provide a ratio- nale for your choice.

Explanation / Answer

The data in the table provides the basis for the analysis. We provide notes as a guide to answering questions 1 through 5.

1. The conditional probabilities of cases being appealed in the three courts are given in the 3 Total rows in the table. For Common Pleas Court, the probability of an appeal is .0401; for Domestic Relations Court, the probability of an appeal is .00348; and for Municipal Court, the probability of an appeal is .00461. Appeals are much more likely in Common Pleas Court. But, even there, only 1 in 25 cases are appealed. The unconditional probability of an appeal across all 3 courts is

(1762 + 106 + 500)/(43,945 + 30,499 + 108,464) = .0129.

2. The probability of a case being appealed for each judge is given in column 5 of the table. Judges Winkler, Panioto and Grady have the lowest probability of appeal for Common Pleas, Domestic Relations and Municipal Courts respectively.

3.       The probability of a case being reversed for each judge is given in column 7 of the table. Judges Winkler, Panioto and Grady/Hair have the lowest probability of reversal for Common Pleas, Domestic Relations and Municipal Courts respectively. These are the probabilities for reversal for all cases disposed of, not just the ones appealed.

4.       The probability of a reversal given an appeal for each judge is given in column 9 of the table. Judges Nurre, Panioto and Grady/Hair have the lowest probability of reversal for Common Pleas, Domestic Relations and Municipal Courts respectively.

5.       We describe here how The Cincinnati Enquirer used this data to rank the judges. Other approaches may also be valid, but a rationale should be provided. The newspaper provided ranking for each judge within each of the courts on percentage of cases appealed, percentage of cases reversed and percentage of appealed cases reversed. Those rankings were the same as the ones we have computed based on probabilities in columns 6, 8 and 10 of the table. Then they summed the 3 rankings to come up with a total ranking for each judge. We provide those total ranks in column 11 of the table. Judge Winkler is the highest ranked judge in Common Pleas Court, Judge Panioto is the highest ranked judge in Domestic Relations Court and Judge Grady is the highest ranked judge in Municipal Court.

Common Pleas Court Judge Total cases Disposed Appealed Cases Reversed Cases Probability Of Appeal Rank Probability of Reverse Rank Conditonal probability of Reversal given Appeal Rank Sum of ranks Fred Cartolano 3037 137 12 0.04511 14 0.00395 6 0.08759 5 25 Thomas Crush 3372 119 10 0.03529 4 0.00297 4 0.08403 4 12 Patrick Dinkelacker 1258 44 8 0.03498 3 0.00636 12 0.18182 14 29 Timothy Hogan 1954 60 7 0.03071 2 0.00358 5 0.11667 9 16 Robert Kraft 3138 127 7 0.04047 10 0.00223 3 0.05512 2 15 William Mathews 2264 91 18 0.04019 7 0.00795 15 0.19780 16 38 William Morrissery 3032 121 22 0.03991 6 0.00726 14 0.18182 14 34 Norbert Nadel 2959 131 20 0.04427 13 0.00676 13 0.15267 12 38 Arthur Ney, Jr. 3219 125 14 0.03883 5 0.00435 9 0.11200 8 22 Richard Niehaus 3353 137 16 0.04086 11 0.00477 10 0.11679 10 31 Thomas Nurre 3000 121 6 0.04033 8 0.00200 2 0.04959 1 11 John O'Connor 2969 129 12 0.04345 12 0.00404 7 0.09302 6 25 Robert Ruehlman 3205 145 18 0.04524 15 0.00562 11 0.12414 11 37 J.Hward Sundermann Jr. 955 60 10 0.06283 16 0.01047 16 0.16667 13 45 Ann Marie Tracey 3141 127 13 0.04043 9 0.00414 8 0.10236 7 24 Ralph Winkler 3089 88 6 0.02849 1 0.00194 1 0.06818 3 5 43945 1762 199 0.04010 0.00453 0.11294

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