The prisoner’s dilemma. Two out of three prisoners are to be released. One of th

Question

The prisoner’s dilemma. Two out of three prisoners are to be released. One of the prisoners asks a guard to tell him the identity of a prisoner other than himself that will be released. The guard refuses with the following rationale: at your present state of knowledge, your probability of being released is 2/3, but after you know my answer, your probability of being released will become 1/2, since there will be two prisoners (including yourself) whose fate is unknown and exactly one of the two will be released. What is wrong with the guard’s reasoning.

Explanation / Answer

Answer

At first the guard says probability of his releasing will be 2/3 which is wrong. Since there are total 3 prisoners thus probability of his releasing will be 1/3, not 2/3.

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