Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election

Question

Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election prior to results being tallied. Suppose a referendum to increase funding for education is on the ballot in a large town (voting population over 100,000). An exit poll of 200 voters and find that 104 voted for the referendum. How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is .48?

How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is 0.48?

The probability that more than 104 people voted for the referendum is

Explanation / Answer

p = 104 / 200 = 0.52

P( z > 0.52 - 0.48 / ( srqt 0.48*0.52 / 200 ) )

P( z >1.13) = 0.1292

The probability that more than 104 people voted for the referendum is

P( x > 104 )

P( z> 104 - 104 / srqt 0.52*0.48 * 200 )

P( z > 0.00 ) = 0.500

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