The Bidwell Value Company requires all prospective employees to be interviewed b
ID: 3134140 • Letter: T
Question
The Bidwell Value Company requires all prospective employees to be interviewed by a three man personnel committee. Each member of the committee votes individually for or against a recommendation of employment. Upon examining the company’s records over the past year, the personnel director has noted the following probabilities for eight possible outcomes:
a. What is the probability member 1 and member 2 vote for employment?
b. What is the probability member 1 or member 2 vote for employment?
c. If member 1 votes for employment, what is the probability that member 2 will also vote for it?
d. If a new employee is hired only if a majority of the committee members vote for employment, what is the probability that a prospective employee is hired? Does a job applicant stand a better or worse chance of being employed going before the committee than one of the individuals? Why?
Vote of Member Outcome 1 2 3 Probability E1 for for for 0.20 E2 for for against 0.14 E3 for against for 0.12 E4 for against against 0.07 E5 against for for 0.08 E6 against for against 0.11 E7 against against for 0.06 E8 against against against 0.22Explanation / Answer
a)P(1 & 2)=P(E1)+P(E2)=0.2+0.14=0.34
b)P(1 or 2)=P(E1)+P(E2)+P(E3)+P(E4)+P(E5)+P(E6)=1-0.28=0.72
c)P(2|1)=(P(E1)+P(E2))/(P(E1)+P(E2)+P(E3)+P(E4))=(0.14+0.2)/(0.14+0.2+0.12+0.07)=34/53=0.6415
d)A new employee is hired only if at least 2 have voted for
=P(E1)+P(E2)+P(E3)+P(E5)=0.2+0.14+0.12+0.08=0.54
If the candidate had gone in front of any of the individuals,he would either get a for or an against at 50% prov.
He would have a 50% chance of selection,but as of the comitte,he has a 54% chance of getting selected.
Hence a job applicant stands a better chance of being employed.
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