These cover probability theory and Bayes’ Law. You will want to revisit these to

Question

These cover probability theory and Bayes’ Law. You will want to revisit these topics before starting this assignment.

The prevalence of Encephalomyelitis Disseminata (ED) in the target population is 149 per 100,000 people. The Hawk test has a false-positive rate of 5% and a false negative rate of 1%. You test positive for ED using the Hawk test. What is the probability that you have ED?

Feel free to answer this with a single sentence like “Given that I test positive for Encephalomyelitis Disseminata using the Hawk test, the probability that I actually have it is 97.98733%.” Make sure that you use the right number.

If you do only provide a sentence like this, then you will receive all credit if your number is correct. If it is wrong, then you receive no credit. To possibly obtain partial credit, you will want to show your work.

Explanation / Answer

“Given that I test positive for Encephalomyelitis Disseminata using the Hawk test, the probability that I actually have it is = 0.95*(149/100000)= 0.0014

= 0.14%

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