PLEASE HELP ME SET UP THE DATA FOR PROBLEM D ONLY..... I HAVE ALREADY ANSWERED A
ID: 3124760 • Letter: P
Question
PLEASE HELP ME SET UP THE DATA FOR PROBLEM D ONLY..... I HAVE ALREADY ANSWERED ALL THE OTHER QUESTIONS
Air pollution control specialists in southern California monitor the amount of ozone, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide in the air on an hourly basis. The hourly time series data exhibit seasonality, with the levels of pollutants showing patterns that vary over the hours in the day. On July 15, 16, and 17, the following levels of nitrogen dioxide were observed for the 12 hours from 6:00 A.M. to 6:00 P.M.
July15: 25 28 35 50 60 60 40 35 30 25 25 20
July16: 28 30 35 48 60 65 50 40 35 25 20 20
July17: 35 42 45 70 72 75 60 45 40 25 25 25
a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Use a multiple linear regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data:
Hour1= 1 if the reading was made between 6:00 A.M. and 7:00 A.M.; 0 otherwise
Hour2= 1 if the reading was made between 7:00 A.M. and 8:00 A.M.; 0 otherwise
....
....
....
Hour11= 1 if the reading was made between 4:00 P.M. and 5:00 P.M.; 0 otherwise
Note that when the values of the 11 dummy variables are equal to 0, the observation corresponds to the 5:00 P.M. to 6:00 P.M. hour
c. Using the equation developed in part (b), compute estimates of the levels of nitrogen dioxide for July 18.
d. Let t = 1 to refer to the observation in hour 1 on July 15; t = 2 to refer to the observation in hour 2 of July 15; …; and t = 36 to refer to the observation in hour 12 of July 17. Using the dummy variables defined in part (b) and t, develop an equation to account for seasonal effects and any linear trend in the time series. Based upon the seasonal effects in the data and linear trend, compute estimates of the levels of nitrogen dioxide for July 18.
Explanation / Answer
1.
The time series plot indicates that levels of nitrogen dioxide are lowest in the 15 July and increase in 16 July and 17 July. Thus, we conclude that a seasonal pattern exists for levels of nitrogen dioxide . But the time series also has an upward linear trend that will need to be accounted for in order to develop accurate forecasts of daily levels of nitrogen dioxide. THus, we would conclude that a daily seasonal pattern with linear trend is present
2.
THe equation is
N=11.16+12.47H1+16.04H2+20.60H3+37.83H4+.....+0.43t
Day Hour hour1 Hour 2 Hour 3 Hour 4 Hour 5 Hour 6 Hour 7 Hour 8 Hour 9 Hour 10 Hour 11 Period Level of Nitrogen dioxide July15: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 25.00 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 28.00 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 35.00 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 50.00 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 60.00 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 6 60.00 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 7 40.00 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 8 35.00 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 9 30.00 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 10 25.00 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 11 25.00 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 20.00 July16: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 28.00 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 30.00 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 35.00 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 48.00 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 60.00 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 18 65.00 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 19 50.00 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 20 40.00 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 21 35.00 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 22 25.00 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 23 20.00 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24 20.00 July 17: 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 35.00 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26 42.00 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 27 45.00 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 70.00 5 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 72.00 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 30 75.00 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 31 60.00 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 32 45.00 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 33 40.00 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 34 25.00 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 35 25.00 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36 25.00Related Questions
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