Problem 3-47 Conditional probabilities P(Favorable survey l Success) P(Unfavorab

Question

Problem 3-47 Conditional probabilities P(Favorable survey l Success) P(Unfavorable survey | Success) P(Favorable survey | Failure) 0.75 0.25 0.35 0.65 Prior probabilities P(Sucess)- P(Failure) 0.50 0.50 Posterior probabilities GIVEN favorable survey Prior Joint Outcome P(Favorable Outcome) rob prob Conditional prob Posterior prob Success Failure P(Favorable survey)0.000 Posterior probabilities GIVEN unfavorable survey Conditional prob Posterior prob #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Prior Outcome P(Unfavorable | Outcome) prob Success Failure Joint prob 0.000 0.00 0.000.000 P(Unfavorable survey) P3-14 Sheet1 P3-15 P3-29 P3-47+ eady

Explanation / Answer

a)
P(Success | favourable)
= P(Success and Favourable) / P(Favourable)
= P(Favourable|Success)* P(Success)/ P(Faourable)
= 0.75 * 0.5 /(0.50 *0.75 + 0.5 * 0.35)
= 0.75/1.1

b)
P(Success | Unfavourable)
= P(Success and UnFavourable) / P(Unfavourable)
= P(Unfavourable|Success)* P(Success)/ P(Unfaourable)
= 0.25 * 0.5 /(0.25 *0.5 + 0.5 * 0.55)
= 0.25/0.9

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse P
• Subjects

---

---

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.