During a television interview, a (hypothetical) political analyst made the follo

Question

During a television interview, a (hypothetical) political analyst made the following claims about the probability of a war in the Korean peninsula.

“A lot of people are vastly underestimating the threat of war in the Korean peninsula, and I think there is a 50% chance of war breaking out between North and South Korea within the next two years.

In fact, I think it is very likely that the upcoming US-North Korea talks will collapse dramatically, resulting in a preemptive US strike on some North Korean missile sites and a war between North and South Korea within the next two years. I think there’s at least a 60% chance that this latter scenario will occur.”

There is a serious error (in terms of probability rules) with the analyst’s claims. State and explain the error in one or two brief sentences.

Explanation / Answer

The event is 'Breaking out of war between North and south Korea within next two years '

There are two probablities attached to the event.

1. 50%

2, Atleast 60%

this violated the fundamental probablity rule of single probablity attached to an event

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