Question 1 contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In

Question

Question 1 contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In Excel, create forecasts for periods 6-13 using each of the following methods: 5 period simple moving average; 4 period weighted moving average (0.63, 0.26, 0.08, 0.03); exponential smoothing (alpha = 0.23 and the forecast for period 5 = 53); linear regression with the equation based on all 12 periods; and quadratic regression with the equation based on all 12 periods. Round all numerical answers to two decimal places. (I have tried to answer what i could)

1. The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are:

(1) 45 (2) 52 (3) 48 (4) 59 (5) 55 (6) 54 (7) 64 (8) 58 (9) 67 (10) 66 (11) 70 (12) 76

Using a 5 period simple moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be: (my answer: 67.40)

2. Using the 4 period weighted moving average, the forecast for period 13 will be: (My answer 67.25)

3. With exponential smoothing, the forecast for period 13 will be: (my answer: 68.30)

4. With linear regression, the forecast for period 13 will be: (my answer: 75.14)

5. With quadratic regression, the forecast for period 13 will be:

6. Considering only the forecasts for period 6-12, what is the lowest MAD value for any of the methods?

Explanation / Answer

Lowest MAD value is for Trend

Period Data 5-SMA 4-WMA ES Trend Abs_Error_SMA Abs_Error_WMA Abs_Error_ES Abs_Error_Trend 1 45 46.26923077 2 52 48.67482517 3 48 51.08041958 4 59 53.48601399 5 55 55.16 53 55.89160839 6 54 51.8 55.39 53.46 58.2972028 2.2 1.39 0.54 4.297202797 7 64 53.6 54.48 53.5842 60.7027972 10.4 9.52 10.4158 3.297202797 8 58 56 60.53 55.979834 63.10839161 2 2.53 2.020166 5.108391608 9 67 58 59.15 56.44447218 65.51398601 9 7.85 10.55552782 1.486013986 10 66 59.6 64.03 58.87224358 67.91958042 6.4 1.97 7.127756421 1.91958042 11 70 61.8 65.56 60.51162756 70.32517483 8.2 4.44 9.488372444 0.325174825 12 76 65 68.36 62.69395322 72.73076923 11 7.64 13.30604678 3.269230769 13 67.4 73.37 65.75434398 75.13636364 MAD MAD MAD MAD 7.028571429 5.048571429 7.636238495 2.814685315 Trend SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.931845631 R Square 0.868336281 Adjusted R Square 0.855169909 Standard Error 3.542252454 Observations 12 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 827.5244755 827.5244755 65.95106727 1.03214E-05 Residual 10 125.4755245 12.54755245 Total 11 953 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 43.86363636 2.18010568 20.11995876 2.02418E-09 39.0060582 48.72121453 39.0060582 48.72121453 Period 2.405594406 0.296218031 8.121026245 1.03214E-05 1.745579502 3.06560931 1.745579502 3.06560931

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