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1: According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), “Compared to nonsmokers, m

ID: 3057912 • Letter: 1

Question

1: According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), “Compared to nonsmokers, men who smoke are about 23 times more likely to develop lung cancer and women who smoke are about 13 times more likely."

(a) If you learn that a person is a woman who has been diagnosed with lung cancer, and you know nothing else about the person, what is the probability she is a smoker? In your solution, use the CDC information that roughly 15% of all women smoke.

(b) Suppose that in the USA, 15% of women are smokers, 18% of all adults are smokers, and half of adults are women. What fraction of adult smokers in the USA are women?

Explanation / Answer

1: According to the Center for Disease Control (CDC), “Compared to nonsmokers, men who smoke are about 23 times more likely to develop lung cancer and women who smoke are about 13 times more likely."

(a) If you learn that a person is a woman who has been diagnosed with lung cancer, and you know nothing else about the person, what is the probability she is a smoker? In your solution, use the CDC information that roughly 15% of all women smoke.

(b) Suppose that in the USA, 15% of women are smokers, 18% of all adults are smokers, and half of adults are women. What fraction of adult smokers in the USA are women?

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