Question 1 contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In

Question

Question 1 contains the actual values for 12 periods (listed in order, 1-12). In Excel, create forecasts for periods 6-13 using each of the following methods: 5 period simple moving average; 4 period weighted moving average (0.63, 0.26, 0.08, 0.03); exponential smoothing (alpha = 0.23 and the forecast for period 5 = 53); linear regression with the equation based on all 12 periods; and quadratic regression with the equation based on all 12 periods. Round all numerical answers to two decimal places.

The actual values for 12 periods (shown in order) are:

(1) 45 (2) 52 (3) 48 (4) 59 (5) 55 (6) 54 (7) 64 (8) 59 (9) 72 (10) 66 (11) 67 (12) 78

***My Question***Considering only the forecasts for period 6-12, what is the lowest MAD value for any of the methods?

Explanation / Answer

Time Data SMA WMA ES Trend Forecasts Abs_Error_SMA Abs_Error_WMA Abs_Error_ES Abs_Error_Trend 1 45 46.244 2 52 48.73 3 48 51.216 4 59 53.702 5 55 55.16 53 56.188 6 54 51.8 55.39 53.4968 58.674 2.2 1.39 0.5032 4.674 7 64 53.6 54.48 53.932236 61.16 10.4 9.52 10.067764 2.84 8 59 56 60.53 54.0582217 63.646 3 1.53 4.94177828 4.646 9 72 58.2 59.78 55.5467307 66.132 13.8 12.22 16.4532693 5.868 10 66 60.8 67.44 56.5203827 68.618 5.2 1.44 9.47961734 2.618 11 67 63 66.94 59.0318946 71.104 4 0.06 7.96810535 4.104 12 78 65.6 66.9 60.8507589 73.59 12.4 11.1 17.1492411 4.41 13 68.4 74 62.2420843 76.076 MAD MAD MAD MAD 7.28571429 5.32285714 9.50899648 4.16571429 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.911 R Square 0.830 Adjusted R Square 0.813 Standard Error 4.256 Observations 12 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 883.778 883.778 48.790 0.000 Residual 10 181.139 18.114 Total 11 1064.917 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Intercept 43.758 2.619 16.705 0.000 37.921 49.594 Time 2.486 0.356 6.985 0.000 1.693 3.279

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