23152017/AW162/ygfgrdBn HW 16: Problem 2 Previous Problem List Next (1 point) in

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23152017/AW162/ygfgrdBn HW 16: Problem 2 Previous Problem List Next (1 point) in a random sample of 1,000 people, it is found that 6.% have a liver aliment Of those who have a liver allment, 85% are hesny dr a moderate drkers, and 37% ae nnemenorese who do rot have a her ainet tr% re heavy men.49%ae mnr If a person is chosen at random, and he or she is a heavy drinker, what is the probability of that pesoning a liver aitment? Ifa person is chosen at random, what is the probalbility the person is a moderate dik? Hint: it may help to til in the folowing table Liver Ailment No Liver Ailment Total Moderate Drinker Heavy Drinker Total Note: You can ea pertial ceait on

Explanation / Answer

P(liver ailment) = 0.066

1. P(liver ailment | heavy drinker) = P(heavy drinker | liver ailment) * P(liver ailment) / P(heavy drinker)

= 0.08*0.066 / [ 0.08*0.066 + 0.11 * (1-0.066) ] = 0.08 * 0.066 / 0.10802 = 0.0489

2. P(moderate drinker) = P(moderate drinker | liver ailment) * P(liver ailment) + P(moderate drinker | no liver ailment) * P(no liver ailment)

= 0.55* 0.066 + 0.48 * (1-0.066) = 0.4846

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