1. Given a project with the following information: Standard |ritica Expected Act

Question

1. Given a project with the following information: Standard |ritica Expected Activity Deviation Path? Duration es no es es 4. Please answer the following questions 1.What is the critical path? 2. What is the project expected duration? 3. What is the probability of completing this project in 10 weeks (or less)? How many weeks should you plan if you want to have an 85% chance of meeting your goal? 5. If you will receive a bonus of $50,000 if this project is completed within 13 weeks and be fined a penalty of $100,000 if the project takes longer than 18 weeks, should you bid the job? Please show quantitative support for your answer

Explanation / Answer

1) Critical path are the ones you need to go through for completing the project which here would be ACE.

2) Expected duration = 5 + 4 + 2 = 11.

3) Probability for completion on or before 10 weeks = Max duration including standard deviation can go to 11+5 = 16 days and minimum duration can do to 11 - 5 = 6.

Thus, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 out of 6 to 16 days = 5/11

4) 85% chance implies 0.85*11 = 9.35 cases you should fall into finishing your work. Thus, 14 days will get you almost at 85% probability.

5) Project going longer than 18 weeks is possible if you visit the non-critical path B which is not necessary. So without B, the project will get finished in max 16 days. Thus, going ahead with bid is good.

Also, P(<13) = 8/11 = 72% thus, seems good from probability stand point too.

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