3. Suspicious Samples? Someone tells you that the samples below were selected at

Question

3. Suspicious Samples? Someone tells you that the samples below were selected at random. Using the graph in the accompanying document, which of the following samples would you consider suspicious? Would you believe that the samples were selected at random? Explain your reasoning. (5 points) (a) Selecting at random 10 ART cycles among women of age 40, eight of which resulted in clinical pregnancies. (b) Selecting at random 10 ART cycles among women of age 41, none of which resulted in clinical pregnancies.

Explanation / Answer

a) Probabiliy of clinical pregnancies = 0.364

P( 8 in 10) = 10C8 * 0.364^8 * 0.636^2=45*0.364^8 * 0.636^2=0.0056

SInce, Probability is very low ( <0.005) we believe that the samples are not random

b) P( none in 10)=0.636^10=0.0108

There is on only a 0.01 chance of this happening, so we believe that the samples are not random

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