7. Iraq is a country that is no stranger to conflict. Much of the conflict stems

Question

7. Iraq is a country that is no stranger to conflict. Much of the conflict stems from religious fractions in the country. About 63% are Shi’a. 36% are Sunni, 0.8% are Christian, and the remaining are some other affliation. No one belongs to more than one religous group. (a) Write each of the four probabilities stated above as a probability statement using S for Shi’a, Sn for Sunni, C for Christian, and O for other. (b) What is the probability of a randomly selected person having some other religious affiliation? (c) What is the probability that a randomly selected person holds Islam as their major belief? (Shi’a or Sunni) (d) What is the probability that a randomly selected person is not a Christian? (e) Given that a randomly selected person is a Christian, what is the probability that the person is Shi’a?

Explanation / Answer

Solution:

Given percentages;

shi'a = 63%

sunni = 36%

christian = 0.8%

( a )

probability of shi'a = P( S)=63/100 = 0.63

probability of sunni =P(Sn) = 36 /100 = 0.36

probability ofchristian = P(C) = 0.8 / 100 = 0.008

probability of others = P( O ) = 1 - (0.36+0.63+0.008) = 1-0.998 = 0.002

( b )

the probability of a randomly selected person having some other religious affiliation = p(O) =

= 1 - (0.36+0.63+0.008) = 1-0.998 = 0.002

( c )

the probability that a randomly selected person holds Islam as their major belief = 0.36 +0.63 = 0.99

( d )

the probability that a randomly selected person is not a Christian = 1 - (0.63+0.36+0.002) = 0.998

( e )

the probability that the person is Shi’a Given that a randomly selected person is a Christian = 0 / 0.008

= 0.0000

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