a population of voters. Suppose that there are N-9,000 voters in the population,

Question

a population of voters. Suppose that there are N-9,000 voters in the population, 20% of whom 1 is 0.20. Consider the event B that S occurs on the second trial. Then B can occur two favor Jones. Identify the event favors Jones as a success S. It is evident that the probability of Jenn S on trial Show that P(B) -0.2. (Enter your probabilities as fractions.) Then 8 can ocur two ways: The first two trials are both successes or the first trial is a falilure and the second is a success 200 what is the nrst trial is S)? (Enter your probabaty as a fraction.) P(Bjthe first trial is 5) Does this conditional probability dffer markediy from P(B)P O They are nowhere near close They are very close.

Explanation / Answer

P(B) = 1800 /9000 * 1800/9000+7200/9000 * 1800/9000

= 0.2

P(B| thre first trial is success)

= P(B and first trial success)/P(first trial success)

P(B and first trial success) = 1800 /9000 * 1800/9000

P(first trial success) = 1800/9000

hence

P(B| the first trial is success) =

P(B and first trial success)/P(first trial success)

= 1800 /9000 * 1800/9000 / 1800/9000

= 0.20

they are same only

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