2.24 Exit poll: Edison Research gathered exit poll results from several sources
ID: 3043345 • Letter: 2
Question
2.24 Exit poll: Edison Research gathered exit poll results from several sources for the Wisconsin recall election of Scott Walker. They found that 52% of the respondents voted in favor of Scott Walker. Additionally, they estimated that of those who did vote in favor for Scott Walker, 33% had a college degree, while 47% of those who voted against Scott Walker had a college degree. Suppose we randomly sampled a person who participated in the exit poll and found that he had a college degree. What is the probability that he voted in favor of Scott Walker?
Explanation / Answer
P( college degree)=P(voted in favour of Scott walker and college degree+voted against of Scott walker and college degree) =0.52*0.33+(1-0.52)*0.47=0.3972
therefore probability that he voted in favor of Scott Walker given have college degree
=P(voted in favour of Scott walker and college degree)/P(college degree) =0.52*0.33/0.3972=0.432024
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