(1 points) Now, specifically locate the likely position of the pocket of maximum
ID: 299853 • Letter: #
Question
(1 points) Now, specifically locate the likely position of the pocket of maximum cold-air advection at 00Z on January 2, (refer to the 00Z analyses of isobars and the chart of 40-meter isotherms). You must give a specific geographical reference (for example, southern Texas).
(2 points) Over the next 12 hours (at 12Z on January 2), the 500-mb heights are predicted to decrease over the pocket of maximum cold-air advection. Explain, in your own words, WHY the 500-mb heights should decrease due to cold air advection. Hint: You must address the rate that pressure decreases with increasing altitude as a function of temperature in your explanation.
(1 point) Given 500-mb height falls over the pocket of maximum cold-air advection, explain the resulting change in strength of the 500-mb trough by 12Z on January 2? That is, does the trough become more pronounced (stronger), become less pronounced (weaker), or stay the same?
(2 points) Given 500-mb height falls over the pocket of maximum cold-air advection, will the value of relative vorticity at the center of the vort max associated with the 500-mb trough likely increase or decrease during the next 12 hours? Please explain your reasoning in a single sentence.
(3 points) Finally, based on your answer in part vi., explain the resulting change in the surface low (does it strengthen or weaken) given the change in the 500-mb absolute vorticity at the center of the vort max. Again, you must use a column-weight argument to justify your answer.
Explanation / Answer
Explanation:
It seems according to the above maps the most likely position of the pocket of maximum cold-air advection at 00Z on January 2 is Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska areas. As we can see in this places the temperature is below 0o and if we consider the isobar then we can see a 5400 low which signifies the presence of cold air. As the height of a cold air parcel at 500mb is much lesser (as it is cold, it sinks and occupy a less region) compare to warm air. Here we can refer the example from Texas, as the thunderstorm is very common here. Texas is closer to the Gulf of Mexico which makes it vulnerable for devastating cyclones where the advecting cold wind finally takes over warm wind and thus form cyclones.
Over the next 12 hours, the 500-mb heights are predicted to decrease over the pocket of maximum cold-air advection as there will be colder wind coming from west to east. The cold wind occupies less amount of areas as it sinks and compressed. We know that the pressure gets decreased with increasing altitude as a function of temperature. So this is the reason why this is happening.
It can be said that the trough will become more pronounced (stronger), As it seems a mid-latitude cyclone is in its initiation stage. This cold pockets will form into cold front which will give a push to the warm front (which will form afterwards).
The value of relative vorticity at the center of the vort max associated with the 500-mb trough likely increase due to cyclonic vorticity advection.
Finally, it can be said that in the surface low the warm air due to o divergence will goes up and the cold wind will get converge and due to Coriolis force the velocity will get increased and a surface low will strengthen and substantially a cyclone will form.
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