in Oz, there are two taxicab companies, the Blue and the Green. The Blue operate
ID: 2987683 • Letter: I
Question
in Oz, there are two taxicab companies, the Blue and the Green. The Blue operates 90% of all cabs and the Green the rest. By curious conincidence or some dark design, the Blue cabs are blue and the Green cabs are green. One dark, stormy evening, a scarecrow is flattened in a tragic hit-and-run taxicab accident. The only witness, a lion, says the cab was green. In court, an expert witness for the defense notes that felines tend to color blindness, and the Lion, despite his macho image, wilts under cross-examination. The court orders a test of the Lion's vision under conditions similar to those the night the accident occurred. In the test, when he is shown a identifies blue cabs 80% of the time. The judge belives the test accurately represents the ability of the witness at the time of the accident. Given that the Lion correctly said the cab was green, what probability should she assign to the cab being green? IS the result surprising?
Explanation / Answer
Probability that he identifies blue car correctly = 80/100 = 0.8
so if he said that the car is green means that he is saying that the car is not blue .so the probability that should be assigned for the cr being green = 0.8
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