We are going to play a game with 3 marbles, two of them red and one blue. The ga

Question

We are going to play a game with 3 marbles, two of them red and one blue.  The games goes as follows: You reach into a bag containing the 3 marbels listed above and remove one keeping your hand closed (i.e. you do not know the color of the marble you selected).  I then reach in and remove a marble and show you it's red.  I now tell you the objective of the game is to obtain the blue marble.  Knowing that I have drawn a red one, which is your better chance to win the game, keeping the one already in your hand, drawing the remaining marble from the bag, or is there no difference?

Explanation / Answer

I think there is no difference, this is because when youremove one out of three marbles from the bag, you don't havecertain objective, this mean that the drawing is meaningless. After' I ' remove one of the red in the bag, then ' I ' tell you theobjective is drawing a blue, this mean you drawing only meaningfulstart from here(this is the beginning of your choice). Now, youneed to choose one from two marbles, either the one in your hand orthe one in the bag. Both are 1/2 probability.So, there is nodifference.

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