The question is: Poll Confidence Level It is common for public opinion polls to

Question

The question is: Poll Confidence Level It is common for public opinion polls to have a "confidence level" of 95%, meaning that there is a 0.95 probability that the poll results are accurate within the claimed margins of error. If six different organizations conduct independent polls, what is the probability that all six of them are accurate within the claimed margins of error? Does the result suggest that with a confidence level of 95%, we can expect that almost all polls will be within the claimed margins of error?

Explanation / Answer

public opinion polls are often reported with a confidence levelof 95% but this DOES NOT MEAN that there is a 0.95probability that the poll results are accurate within the claimedmargins of error.

When constructing a public opinion poll with a certain margin oferror the procedure is designed so when the poll is conducted thereis a 95% probability that the resulting confidence interval willinclude the true value.

That is that the true value will be within the margin oferror.

the probability that all six of them are accurate within theclaimed margins of error = 0.956 = 0.735

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