1. Which of the following is a source of uncertainty in future climate projectio

Question

1. Which of the following is a source of uncertainty in future climate projections that we will not be able to reduce?

Question 1 options:

Internal climate variability

Future fossil fuel emissions

2,  

Why do we have scenario uncertainty in climate model projections?

Question 2 options:

We don't know how climate will respond to enhanced greenhouse gas forcing in the future.

We don't currently know the magnitude of future global emissions.

Internal climate variability introduces uncertainty into climate projections.

3.  

By how much is the global temperature expected to rise over the next century?

Question 3 options:

0 degrees C

1 to 6 degrees C

7 to 8 degrees C

4.  

According to the AR5 IPCC report, how low do cumulative CO2 emissions have to be for the global average surface temperature to stay below 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels, with a probability of >66% (i.e., likely)?

Below 4000 GtC

Below 1000 GtC

Below 2000 GtC

5.  

By the year 2100, the IPCC AR4 report (2013) CMIP5 model ensemble mean projects a warming of around ____ compared to1986-2005 in the RCP8.5 scenario.

Question options:

1°C

2°C

3°C

4°C

Drew Slater – an avid skier at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC, located here at CU-Boulder!) - made the above graph. It shows observed snow water equivalent (SWE) at Squaw Valley, California in 2004 (black), and estimated SWE as the climate if 2004 were 1 to 10 degrees C warmer (colored lines). The letters on the x-axis stand for months of the winter season from October (O) through July (J). The tick indicates the beginning of the month (i.e., the O = October 1, the N = November 1, the D = December 1…). A value of zero means no snow.

Assume that Squaw Valley is expected to warm 5 °C in all months by 2050. What will happen to the snow conditions at Squaw Valley according to the graph above?

Question options:

January and February are the only months that will have snow throughout the entire month in 2050.

February snow amounts in 2050 will be similar to 2004 values (black curve).

There will be no snow in January in 2050.

7.

Why do satellites show Arctic sea ice cover in late summer decreasing in almost half from 1979 to present?

Question options:

Increasing greenhouse gases

Internal climate variability that has enhanced sea ice cover loss

Increasing greenhouse gases and internal climate variability that have enhanced sea ice cover loss

Internal climate variability

Future fossil fuel emissions

SQUAW VALLEY G.C. 39.18N-120.25E 2447m 1500 2004 2 1000 4 7 8 500 10 aslater@nsidc.org

Explanation / Answer

Ans 1) Future fossil fuel emission.

Ans 2) We currently dont know the magnitude of future global emission.

Ans 3) 1 to 6 degrees.

Ans 4) Below 1000 GtC.

Ans 5) 4dl degrees.

Ans 6) January and February are the only two months that will have snow throughout the entire month in 2050.

Ans 7) Increased greenhouse gases.

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