Ext poling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an elec 100,0

Question

Ext poling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an elec 100,000) An ext poll of 500 voters finds that 245 voted for the referendum How likey are the result, comment on the dangers of using ext poling to call elections How lkey are the results of your sample t the popuiation proportion of voters in the town in tavor of the referendum s o 51 The probability that fewer than 245 people voted for the referendum is tion prior to resuits being tallied Suppose a referendum to inc crease funding for education is on the balot in a large town (volting popuiat resuts of your sample f the popuiaton proportion of voters in the toun in favor of the referendum s 0 51? Based on y (Round to four decimal places as needed ) Comment on the dangers of using exit poling to call elections Choose the correct answer belou The result is not unusual because the probabity hat p s equal to or more e tren ethan te sample proponon sess than 5% Thus ts unusual considered OB. The resut is unusual because the probabilty that pis equal to or more extreme than the sample proportion s less man The resuit s not unusual because the probablity tmat p s equal to or i Click to select your answer(s) tor a wrong cal to be made nanelectiondentpong aone 5% Thus tsunusual tr a arong cal to be madeinan eiection etpoling aloe s hoe enreme than the sampeproponon sgreater than 5% Thus tsnoturusual for a wong cal to be made n an eecton text poing than the

Explanation / Answer

here p=0.51 and n=500

std error =(p(1-p)/n)1/2 =0.0224

phat =245/500=0.49

therefore probability of fewer then 245 people voted for the referendum=P(X<0.49)=P(Z<(0.49-0.51)/0.0224)

=P(Z<-0.8946)=0.1855

option C is correct; the result is not unusual

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