For a particular miniature golf hole, the chance of getting ahole-in-one is only

Question

For a particular miniature golf hole, the chance of getting ahole-in-one is only 30%. The chance of sinking any subsequent puttis 50%. Estimate the average number of putts for this hole. Use atleast 30 trials. A) about 4.4 putts B) about 3.9 putts C) about 3.4 putts D) about 2.4 putts E) about 1.4 putts For a particular miniature golf hole, the chance of getting ahole-in-one is only 30%. The chance of sinking any subsequent puttis 50%. Estimate the average number of putts for this hole. Use atleast 30 trials. A) about 4.4 putts B) about 3.9 putts C) about 3.4 putts D) about 2.4 putts E) about 1.4 putts

Explanation / Answer

H=sink put M=miss I simulated the results of 30 attempts below. For the firstset of puts, 30% of the 30 make it, so there are 9 holes-inone. For the second set of puts, 50% make it, so of theremaining 21, I said there were 10 more sank puts. For thethird set of oputs, 50 % make it, so of the remaining 11, I saidthere were 5 sank puts. For the fourth set of puts, 50% makeit, so of the remaining 6, I said there were 3 sank puts. Forthe fifth set of puts, 50% make it, so of the remaining 3, I saidthere was 1 sank put. For the sixth set of puts, 50% make it,so of the remaining 2, I said there was 1 sank put. Finally,for the seventh set of put, there was only 1 remaining with a 50%chance of making it, and since I had been rounding down the numberof made puts for the odd numbers, I said it was successful. Now, add up the total number of puts to get 74. 74/30=2.466667 So the answer is 2.4, D. 1. H 2. H 3. H 4. H 5. H 6. H 7. H 8. H 9. H 10. M, H 11. M, H 12. M, H 13. M, H 14. M, H 15. M, H 16. M, H 17. M, H 18. M, H 19. M, H 20. M, M, H 21. M, M, H 22. M, M, H 23. M, M, H 24. M, M, H 25. M, M, M, H 26. M, M, M, H 27. M, M, M, H 28. M, M, M, M, H 29. M, M, M, M, M, H 30. M, M, M, M, M, M, H

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