Nigeria in 2016 had a population of approx 186 million. Its current birth rate i

Question

Nigeria in 2016 had a population of approx 186 million. Its current birth rate is 40.5 per thousand inhabitants and its death rate is 17 per thousand. Total fertility is currently about 5.5 children on average per woman over her life time (and fertility is only slowly declining) .

a) Nigeria will have one of the fastest growing populations over this century. Estimate , assuming that current demographic rates are maintained, the Nigerian population in 2100. What is the % increase compared to 2016? Assume food needs will have to increase at least by the % by 2100.

Explanation / Answer

Birthrate per 1000 population = (Births per year/Total population) x 1000 = 40.5

Deathrate per 1000 population = (Deaths per year/Total population) x 1000 = 17

Rate of natural increase in population = (Birthrate - Death Rate) x 10 = (40.5 - 17) x 10 = 2.35%

So there will be 2.35% increase in population yearly

Therefore, population at the end of 2100 ,i.e. after 84 years will be = (1 + 0.0235)84 x 186 million = 1308.85 million

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