To test the effectiveness of protective packaging, a firm shippedout 1200 orders

Question

To test the effectiveness of protective packaging, a firm shippedout 1200 orders in regular light packaging and 1500 orders inheavy-duty packaging. Of the orders shipped in lightpackaging, 20 arrived in damaged condition, while of the ordersshipped in heavy-duty packaging, 15 arrived in damagedcondition. Can you conclude that heavy-duty packaging reducesdamaged shipments?
I can probably make an intelligent guess at this, but I am havingtrouble explaining it in probability. Can somebody please help.Thanks in advance.
I can probably make an intelligent guess at this, but I am havingtrouble explaining it in probability. Can somebody please help.Thanks in advance.

Explanation / Answer

No, because this is not a causation problem. Even if all 1200 ofthe light packaging items were damaged, and zero of the heavy dutyones were, this would only show correlation, and has nothing to dowith heavy-duty packaging reducing the risk. While it can be shownthat packages in heavy-duty packaging tend to not be damaged, itcannot be proven that the packaging itself actuallyreduces the risk.

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