A doctor ?nds evidence of a serious illness in a particular patientand must make

Question

A doctor ?nds evidence of a serious illness in a particular patientand must make a determination about whether or not to advisethe patient to undergo a dangerous operation. If the patientdoes su?er from the illness in question, there is a 95%probability that he will die if he does not undergo theoperation. If he does undergo the operation, he has a 50%probability of survival. If the operation is conducted and itis discovered that the patient does not su?er from theillness, there is a 10% probability that the patient will diedue to complications resulting from the operation. If it hasbeen estimated that there is a 20% to 30% probability of thepatient actually having the illness in question, how shouldthe doctor advise her patient?

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