Table 1: Record of Earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault at Pallet Creek and t
ID: 290421 • Letter: T
Question
Table 1: Record of Earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault at Pallet Creek and the Hayward Fault in Northern California San Andreas Pallet Creek Hayward NorCal Time interval (years) Year of event Year of event 1857 1812 1480 1346 1100 1048 997 797 734 671 ime interval (years) 143 Seismic Event E1 E2 ?? E4 1868 1725 1629 1476 1318 1134 958 822 630 434 E6 E7 E8 E9 E10 Table3 Longest Interval Average Interval 131.78 159.33 Earthquake location Shortest Interval San Andreas, Pallet Creek 45 332 Hayward 96 196 d) Using your timelines and the information in Table 3, write a description of the temporal pattern of each earthquake sequence (SA at Pallet Creek and Hayward). Include a comparison/contrast of the sequences. Based on these two sequences, what would you conclude concerning the accuracy of long-term earthquake prediction? e) Scientists studying the Hayward Fault in Northern California estimate that its long-term slip rate averages 1.25 centimeters per year. How far did the fault slip from 434 through 1868?Explanation / Answer
d) The temporal data obtained from San Andreas, Pallet Creek shows that the earthquakes are more frequent than that from Hayward as evident by the average interval and shortest interval. The recurrence of earthquake events along the Hayward Fault is lesser on average than San Andreas as the average interval is more, implying that it takes more to generate two successive earthquakes at Hayward. Conversely, the recurrence in San Andreas is more on average as two successive earthquakes occur rather quickly.
Long-term prediction of earthquakes is considered accurate if the seismic gap is more as the time elapsed between two successive earthquakes allows the strain in the fault zone to build up in the large time gap, i.e. seismic gap. It is evident from the two datasets in Table 3 that there is a long time interval between earthquakes at San Andreas, which can be considered as a potential seismic gap. So, the long-term prediction would be more accurate as far as San Andreas is concerned.
e) In one year, the fault slips 1.25 centimeters. So, from 434 through 1868, i.e. in 1434 years, the fault slipped about 17.9 meters.
1434 x 1.25 = 1792.5 cm or 17.92 m
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