During your lesson this week, you were asked to look at an atmospheric model fro
ID: 287077 • Letter: D
Question
During your lesson this week, you were asked to look at an atmospheric model from the University of Chicago.
The model starts CO2 levels at 375 PPM (parts per million) and in the module you are asked to see what happens to temperature if the CO2 level is at 390 PPM. There are a lot of graphs in the results, which may be confusing to you at this point. The only thing you need to be concerned about is the one line at the top of the page that provides the temperature and calls it the “Equilibrium near-surface air temperature”. And at the default 375 PPM level it starts off at 16.0 degrees Celsius.
In 2015, for the first time since it began tracking CO2 concentrations, the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii measure a yearly average CO2 concentration above 400 PPM. Some months it was a fraction below 400 PPM and some months it was over it.. Typically, the measurement over the course of a year peaks in May/June and reaches a low point in October. For the year 2017, the CO2 levels peaked in May about 409 PPM and bottomed out at a low of 402 PPM in September. For the year the average was 406.32 PPM. (See Graph Below, Note January 2018 is higher than January 2017).
Since 1958, when the CO2 measurements have been taken, we have seen an increase every year of about 2 PPM. (It was 2.11 PPM higher in 2017 from 2016)
For our discussion, I want you to go back to that model. Start with the 2017 average of 406 PPM. Then I want you to increase the CO2 concentrations by 5 PPM and see what happens. Do it again and again until you discover what happens at 426 PPM. Keep going another four times until you reach 446 PPM.
Now as to the discussion.
Given that yearly increase and knowing what the average was in 2017, in what year should it reach the 426 PPM average? What 446 PM?
How much will the temperature increase in each of those time periods?
Do you some research and discuss whether or not that is a lot to change globally or is it just a little bit?
One year of CO2 daily and weekly means at Mauna Loa 412 410 MA. 408 MAR 406 TMOSPHE NOV AUG NOAA 404 NT OF 402 J F M A M J J AS O N D JF MExplanation / Answer
It is clearly visible that there is a steady yet alarming rise of 2PPM per year as per the graph and even studies have concluded the same.
It is around 406PPM in 2017. With a steady rise of 2PPM per year, a target 426PPM, which means 20PPM, it will take another 10years to reach that particular level. 2027 would probably be the year at which you could see that level of PPM. And to reach 446PPM, which is another 20PPM, it would take another 10 years, which is 2037.
Having said all these statistically, it is very important for us to understand that, the UN is progressing towards a cleaner and better environment which focusses on reduction in Greenhouse effect and Climate change.We might see a steady decrease in the 2PPM average per year increse. But, researchers are still finding it difficult to put up actual data of the same. Please refer these articles to view certain research programs carried by leading Universities across the world on Carbon Emissions.
http://theconversation.com/us/topics/carbon-emissions-2586
Also refer to sustainable development goals in the research paper below.
https://www.fona.de/mediathek/pdf/research_for_sustainable_development_neu.pdf
I hope, this helps.
regards.
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