The “oligopoly.dta” attached give quarterly sales of the popular game Oligopoly

Question

The “oligopoly.dta” attached give quarterly sales of the popular game Oligopoly at the J-Mart variety store. Please use the multiplicative decomposition method to forecast Oligopoly sales for year 4.

a. Compute appropriate 4-period moving averages for these data.

b. Compute centered moving averages for these data.

c. Calculate values for these data.

d. Calculate estimates of the seasonal factors for quarterly Oligopoly sales.

e. Compute the deseasonalized observations for these data.

f. Plot the deaseasonalized observations versus time. What kind of trend appears to exist?

g. Assuming a linear trend compute point estimates for B0 and B1.

h. Compute values for the Oligopoly data.

i. Compute estimates of the cyclical factors for the Oligopoly data.

j. Compute forecasts of Oligopoly sales for the four quarters of year 4.

Note: Please use Stata for compute this results.

y
20
25
35
44
28
29
43
48
24
37
39
56

Explanation / Answer

a. Mean average sales for the first 4 periods = (20+25+35+44)/4 = 31

4-perod Moving average = 31

The second subset of moving averages = (25+35+44+28)/4 = 33

The third subset of moving averages = (35+44+28+29)/4 = 34

The fourth subset of moving averages = (44+28+29+43)/4 = 36

The fifth subset of moving averages = (28+29+43+48)/4 = 37

The sixth subset of moving averages = (29+43+48+24)/4 = 36

The seventh subset of moving averages = (43+48+24+37)/4 = 38

The eigth subset of moving averages = (48+24+37+39)/4 = 37

The ninth subset of moving averages = (24+37+39+56)/4 = 39

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