A home pregnancy test is not always accurate. Suppose the probability that the t

Question

A home pregnancy test is not always accurate. Suppose the probability that the test indicates that a woman is pregnant when she actually is not is 0.02, and the probability the test indicates that a woman is not pregnant when she really is, is 0.02. Assume that the probability that a woman who takes the test is actually pregnant is 0.75.

a). What is the probability that the test indicates that a woman is not pregnant? (Hint: It is not given above -- you have to calculate it!)

b). What is the probability that a woman is pregnant if the test yields a not pregnant result?

Explanation / Answer

Probability of a women is actually pregnant 0.75 Probability of a women is not actually pregnant 0.25 Probability of wrong result 0.02 Probability of right result=1-0.02 0.98 a> Probability that the test indicates that the women is not pregnant=Probability of right detection + probability of wrong detection=0.25*0.98+0.75*0.02 0.26 b>Probability =1-0.26 0.74

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