The hospital has to allocate a certain amount of operating room (OR) time to spe
ID: 2445762 • Letter: T
Question
The hospital has to allocate a certain amount of operating room (OR) time to specific cardiac procedures. Since the actual procedure time in the OR is random and will – in the best of all cases- vary around the expected procedure time, some procedures will exceed the forecasted durations while others will be completed ahead of schedule. If the hospital reserves too much time to a case, the OR is likely to incur excessive idle time. If, however, the hospital reserves to little time to a case, the hospital is likely to face schedule over-runs and decreased service quality.
Case A:
Reserved Time: 90 min.
Actual Time: 122 min.
A/F Ratio: 1.35
Case B:
Reserved Time: 100 min.
Actual Time: 83 min.
A/F Ratio: .83
Case C:
Reserved Time: 120 min.
Actual Time: 121 min.
A/F Ratio: 1.01
Case D:
Reserved Time: 150 min.
Actual Time: 145 min.
A/F Ratio: .97
Case E:
Reserved Time: 180 min.
Actual Time: 209 min.
A/F Ratio: 1.16
There is a new case, say, F. The reservation system predicts the operating time to be 110 minutes. From past experiences, the doctors think that the reservation system has a certain percentage of predicting error (see table)
The doctors wonder if Newsvedor model would help in their planning. [Hint: Part A asks for the order quantity that meets the demand 80% of the time. Once you know the “order quantity”, you can compute other measures.]
a) If the doctors want to make sure that the reserved time is enough for the procedure with at least 80% of the chance, how much time should be reserves for case F?
b) What is the expected overtime for case F?
c) What is the expected idle time for case F?
Explanation / Answer
(a) CASE F
ACTUAL TIME=110 MINUTES
RESERVED TIME=110 MINUTES*80%=88 MINUTES
A/F RATIO=110/88=1.25
(b)EXPECTED OVERTIME FOR CASE F=110MINUTES-88MINUTES=22MINUTES AS ATUAL TIME REQUIRED IS MORE THAN RESERVED TIME KEPT
(c) EXPECTED IDLE TIME FOR CASE F=0 AS RESERVED TIME IS LESS THAN THE ACTUAL TIME REQUIRED HENCE NO TIME WOULD BE LEFT IDLE
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