Please respond to this post in APA format, with at least one reference and one t

Question

Please respond to this post in APA format, with at least one reference and one to two paragraphs in length. Take a stance on agree or disagree and state your argument, supported with facts.

Only two things are absolutely known about the stock market.

1. It will go up.

2. It will go down.

Anyone who says they can reliably predict either with certainty is a fool or is playing you for one (Bischoff, 1991). Still, heading out to uncharted territory, gun-fighting and gambling are part of the lexicon we call the American experience. That drive to stake a claim at all costs; come hell or high water, going belly up, going bust or striking it rich when all the odds are against you is the theme of most hero movies, and Cubs baseball seasons…

America is in a state of eternal optimism. We always think there is more time, another chance; one more shot at winning. To some degree these same sentiments are at the heart of capitalism. Business wants to succeed. Markets want to grow, and investors want to take advantage of those sentiments. Banks invest in future endeavors and expect returns for their risk, so why not individuals? Optimism says, “Yes, the P/E ratio is high, but that’s because there’s great growth ahead.” Optimism says, “I understand that there are problems, but I believe solutions will be found.” Optimism says, “The long-term trend is up, and therefore it is likely to remain up.” But not everyone agrees with this optimistic attitude and that’s great. That’s what makes markets (Lutts, 2015). It is the transaction where value is created. One’s selling price meets another’s buying price. Both are happy because they see potential either in the transaction or what it makes possible.

Markets are social entities. To remove the relationships of people from all the interactions and transactions that make markets possible would destroy the endeavor.

I played the commodities exchange a few years ago simply for fun. I had a strategy, I did my research, I played and I lost. It was an exercise purely as a gambler might look at Blackjack. Yes I knew some of the cards and what might happen to a degree, but the results were the same as always…the house won. It was like fantasy football or roulette or even craps. Kinda’ fun, but I knew going in that every bit of my initial capital investment was going to be lost.

For those who play the stock market, the same may likely be true. These might be day traders or others who are in for the chase. However for the vast majority who are in the market, it is with retirement dollars, and that is not a game. There is certainly speculation with a bit of optimism, but more often, there is planning and watching and nail biting over those percentages of portfolios at higher risk.

Investment houses have long been at odds with online trading entities seeking to give individual investors more control. Many investors will look at the online trading numbers, but many more will seek the advice of others just as readily. So regardless of utilizing a professional portfolio manager, or seeking chatter from a discussion board, people are bringing the social aspect of markets right back to the top.

Explanation / Answer

It is to be understood that markets are affected by two factors one is fundamental & other one is technical.

Fundamental factors arer purely based on analysis & technical factors are somewhat beyond control.

Take the China & Euro crisis. These are out of control technical factors. Other thig to understand is market is guided by the inflow or outflow of funds. You can short as well in futures & options.

It is difficult to predict the market in uncertain environment. Once there is certainity one can predict the market fo short duration.

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