The following gives the number of pints of blood at a hospital in the past 6 wee

Question

The following gives the number of pints of blood at a hospital in the past 6 weeks Week Pints 360 389 410 381 368 Aug 31 Sept 7 Sept 14 Sept 21 Sept 28 October 5374 a. Forecast the demand for Oct 12 using a 3 week moving average b. Use a three week weighted moving average with weights of 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6, using 0.6 for the recent week. Forecast demand for the week of October 12 Compute the forecast for the week of Sept 14 using exponential smoothing with a forecast for Aug 31 as 360 and c. a 0.2

Explanation / Answer

Moving average for last 3 weeks = 374+368+381/ 3

= 374.33

.i.e. the expected demand for Oct 12 is 374.33 pints of blood.

Similary using given weights we calculate the expected demand on 12th of Oct as follows

=381*0.1+368*0.3+374*0.6

=38.1+110.4+224.4

=372.9 pints of blood

Now using exponential smoothing , calculate forecast for the week of sept 14 as follows:

D= Current Demand i.e. demand on sept 7 = 389,

a= smoothing factor = 0.2

N= time period = 1 week

F= previous forecast = 360 (Given)

now forecast for the week of Sept 14

D*a+ [F*(1-a)]

=389*0.2 + [360*(1-0.2)]

=77.8 + 288

=365.8 pints of blood

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