You know from studying disease ecology that a good model for calculating the net

Question

You know from studying disease ecology that a good model for calculating the net reproductive rate of a disease is: R0 = Sg b . If R0>1, then an outbreak of the disease ensues. You are working at the Colorado Division of Wildlife, and you are given the task of reducing the risk of a rabies outbreak. Foxes and raccoons are the main wild hosts for rabies in town. You and your colleagues review the literature and estimate that the transition rate of the disease is actually quite low at approximately, g=0.00004, and that the recovery rate is approximately b=0.05.

In that case, how small does the pool of susceptible individuals need to be to prevent an outbreak? (i.e. to get R0 to be less than 1)? Please show your work.

Vaccination against rabies can be done using baits. If there are 2,000 raccoons and foxes, how many of them must then eat the bait to prevent an outbreak? Please show your work.

Explanation / Answer

Ro= Sgb

1<Sgb

1<S*0.00004*0.05

S= 1/0.000002

S = 500,000

The pool of susceptible individuals have to be 500, 000 so as to prevent an outbreak

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