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TheCarbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance.The decisi

ID: 1233462 • Letter: T

Question

TheCarbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance.The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to bedriven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are asfollows.

Forecast the mileage for next year using a 2-year movingaverage.

Round your answer to the nearest whole number; forexample, 1234 .

Find the MAD for your forecast in part (a).

Round your answer to the nearest whole number; forexample, 123 .

Usea weighted 2-year moving average with weights of .4 and .6 toforecast next year’s mileage. (The weight of .6 is for themost recent year.)

Round your answer to the nearest whole number; forexample, 1234 .

What is the MAD of this forecast?

Round your answer to the nearest whole number; forexample, 123 .

Round your answer to the nearest whole number; forexample, 1234 .

TheCarbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance.The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to bedriven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are asfollows.

Year Mileage 1 2,900 2 4,000 3 3,500 4 3,900 5 3,700 (a)

Forecast the mileage for next year using a 2-year movingaverage.

Round your answer to the nearest whole number; forexample, 1234 .

(b)

Find the MAD for your forecast in part (a).

Round your answer to the nearest whole number; forexample, 123 .

(c)

Usea weighted 2-year moving average with weights of .4 and .6 toforecast next year’s mileage. (The weight of .6 is for themost recent year.)

Round your answer to the nearest whole number; forexample, 1234 .

What is the MAD of this forecast?

Round your answer to the nearest whole number; forexample, 123 .

(d)

Compute the forecast for year 6 using exponential smoothing, aninitial forecast for year 1 of 2,900 miles, and .

Round your answer to the nearest whole number; forexample, 1234 .

Explanation / Answer

a) 2-year moving average: (3900 + 3700)/2 = 3800 b) MAD is simply the average of the absolute errors: Year   Mileage 2-yr MA   Abs error 1      2900      2      4000 3      3500    3450      50 4      3900    3750      150 5      3700    3700      0 MAD = 67 c) weighted moving average: 0.6(3700) + 0.4(3900) = 3780 MAD is calculated as such: Year   Mileage Weighted MA   Abserror 1      2900      2      4000 3      3500    3560          60 4      3900    3700          200 5      3700    3740          40 MAD = 100 d) Forecast for year 6 = 3694 Mileage Forecast 2900     4000      3450 3500      3475 3900      3688 3700      3694