The Carbondale Hospital is considering thepurchase of a new ambulance. The decis
ID: 1233440 • Letter: T
Question
The Carbondale Hospital is considering thepurchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on theanticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven duringthe past 5 years are as follows.
Forecast the mileage for next year using a2-year moving average.
Round your answer to the nearest wholenumber; for example,1234 .
Find the MAD for your forecast in part(a).
Round your answer to the nearest wholenumber; for example,123 .
Use a weighted 2-year moving average withweights of .4 and .6 to forecast next year’s mileage. (Theweight of .6 is for the most recent year.)
Round your answer to the nearest wholenumber; for example,1234 .
What is the MAD of this forecast?
Round your answer tothe nearest whole number; for example,123 .
Round your answer to the nearest wholenumber; for example,1234 .
The Carbondale Hospital is considering thepurchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on theanticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven duringthe past 5 years are as follows.
Year Mileage 1 3,000 2 4,000 3 3,200 4 4,300 5 3,700 (a) Forecast the mileage for next year using a2-year moving average.
Round your answer to the nearest wholenumber; for example,1234 .
(b)Find the MAD for your forecast in part(a).
Round your answer to the nearest wholenumber; for example,123 .
(c)Use a weighted 2-year moving average withweights of .4 and .6 to forecast next year’s mileage. (Theweight of .6 is for the most recent year.)
Round your answer to the nearest wholenumber; for example,1234 .
What is the MAD of this forecast?
Round your answer tothe nearest whole number; for example,123 .
(d)Compute the forecast for year 6 usingexponential smoothing, an initial forecast for year 1 of 3,000miles, and .
Round your answer to the nearest wholenumber; for example,1234 .
Explanation / Answer
a) 2-year moving average: (3700 + 4300)/2 = 4000 b) MAD is simply the average of the absolute errors: Year Mileage 2-yr MA Abs error 1 3000 2 4000 3 3200 3500 300 4 4300 3600 700 5 3700 3750 50 MAD = (300+700+50)/3 = 350 c) weighted moving average: 0.6(3700) + 0.4(4300) = 3940 MAD is calculated as such: Year Mileage Weighted MA Abserror 1 3000 2 4000 3 3200 3500 400 4 4300 3600 780 5 3700 3750 160 MAD = 447 d) Forecast for year 6 = 3763 Mileage Forecast 3000 4000 3500 3200 3350 4300 3825 3700 3763
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