3. Refer to the following data on the U.S. consumer price index and answer the q
ID: 1205048 • Letter: 3
Question
3. Refer to the following data on the U.S. consumer price index and answer the questions below.
Year CPI Year CPI Year CPI Year CPI
1988 118.3 1993 144.5 1998 163.0 2003 184.0
1989 124.0 1994 148.2 1999 166.6 2004 188.9
1990 130.7 1995 152.4 2000 172.2 2005 195.3
1991 136.2 1996 156.9 2001 177.1 2006 201.8
1992 140.3 1997 160.5 2002 179.9
a. Compute the inflation rate for each year 1989-2006.
b. Which years were years of inflation? What do you expect to happen to real interest rates during this time period if nominal rates remain unchanged?
c. In which years did deflation occur? What do you expect to happen to real interest rates during this time period if nominal rates remain unchanged?
d. In which years did disinflation occur?
Explanation / Answer
a. Inflation rate for each year:
Year
CPI
Inflation
Disinflation
1988
118.3
1989
124
5%
1990
130.7
5%
FALSE
1991
136.2
4%
TRUE
1992
140.3
3%
TRUE
1993
144.5
3%
TRUE
1994
148.2
3%
TRUE
1995
152.4
3%
FALSE
1996
156.9
3%
FALSE
1997
160.5
2%
TRUE
1998
163
2%
TRUE
1999
166.6
2%
FALSE
2000
172.2
3%
FALSE
2001
177.1
3%
TRUE
2002
179.9
2%
TRUE
2003
184
2%
FALSE
2004
188.9
3%
FALSE
2005
195.3
3%
FALSE
2006
201.8
3%
TRUE
Formulae:
b. Years of inflation:
Inflation occured in all of the years.
Real interest rate = Nominal rate - inflation rate
If nominal rates remain unchanged during inflation, the real interest rate would reduce
c. Years of deflation: None (deflation is opposite of inflation)
If nominal rates remain unchanged during deflation, the real interest rate would increase
d. Disinflation occured in following years:
1991, 92, 93, 94, 97, 98, 2001, 02 & 06
Disinflation is marginal reduction of inflation over a period.
Year
CPI
Inflation
Disinflation
1988
118.3
1989
124
5%
1990
130.7
5%
FALSE
1991
136.2
4%
TRUE
1992
140.3
3%
TRUE
1993
144.5
3%
TRUE
1994
148.2
3%
TRUE
1995
152.4
3%
FALSE
1996
156.9
3%
FALSE
1997
160.5
2%
TRUE
1998
163
2%
TRUE
1999
166.6
2%
FALSE
2000
172.2
3%
FALSE
2001
177.1
3%
TRUE
2002
179.9
2%
TRUE
2003
184
2%
FALSE
2004
188.9
3%
FALSE
2005
195.3
3%
FALSE
2006
201.8
3%
TRUE
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