In late 1980, the U.S. Commerce Department released new data showing inflation w

Question

In late 1980, the U.S. Commerce Department released new data showing inflation was 15%. At the time, the prime rate of interest was 21%, a record high. However, many investors expected the new Reagan administration to be more effective in controlling inflation than the Carter administration had been. Moreover, many observers believed that the extremely high interest rates and generally tight credit, which resulted from the Federal Reserve System's attempts to curb the inflation rate, would lead to a recession, which, in turn, would lead to a decline in inflation and interest rates. Assume that at the beginning of 1981, the expected inflation rate for 1981 was 13%; for 1982, 9%; for 1983, 8%; and for 1984 and thereafter, 6%. What was the average expected inflation rate over the 5-year period 1981 - 1985? Round your answer to two decimal places. (Use the arithmetic average.) 8.4 % Over the 5-year period, what average nominal interest rate would be expected to produce a 1% real risk-free return on 5-year Treasury securities? Assume MRP = 0. Round your answer to two decimal places. % Assuming a real risk-free rate of 3% and a maturity risk premium that equals 0.1 x (t)%, where t is the number of years to maturity, estimate the interest rate in January 1981 on bonds that mature in 1 year. Round your answer to two decimal places. 5.85 % Assuming a real risk-free rate of 3% and a maturity risk premium that equals 0.1 x (t)%, where t is the number of years to maturity, estimate the interest rate in January 1981 on bonds that mature in 2 years. Round your answer to two decimal places. 5.95 % Assuming a real risk-free rate of 3% and a maturity risk premium that equals 0.1 x (t)%, where t is the number of years to maturity, estimate the interest rate in January 1981 on bonds that mature in 3 years. Round your answer to two decimal places. 6.05 % Assuming a real risk-free rate of 3% and a maturity risk premium that equals 0.1 x (t)%, where t is the number of years to maturity, estimate the interest rate in January 1981 on bonds that mature in 5 years. Round your answer to two decimal places. 6.25 % Assuming a real risk-free rate of 3% and a maturity risk premium that equals 0.1 x (t)%, where t is the number of years to maturity, estimate the interest rate in January 1981 on bonds that mature in 10 years. Round your answer to two decimal places. 6.75 % Assuming a real risk-free rate of 3% and a maturity risk premium that equals 0.1 x (t)%, where t is the number of years to maturity, estimate the interest rate in January 1981 on bonds that mature in 20 years. Round your answer to two decimal places.

What was the average expected inflation rate over the 5-year period 1981 - 1985? Round your answer to two decimal places. (Use the arithmetic average.)

Over the 5-year period, what average nominal interest rate would be expected to produce a 1% real risk-free return on 5-year Treasury securities? Assume MRP = 0. Round your answer to two decimal places.

Assuming a real risk-free rate of 3% and a maturity risk premium that equals 0.1 x (t)%, where t is the number of years to maturity, estimate the interest rate in January 1981 on bonds that mature in 1 year. Round your answer to two decimal places.

Assuming a real risk-free rate of 3% and a maturity risk premium that equals 0.1 x (t)%, where t is the number of years to maturity, estimate the interest rate in January 1981 on bonds that mature in 2 years. Round your answer to two decimal places.

Explanation / Answer

Part 1)

The expected average inflation rate during the period 1981-1985 is calculated as below:

Average Inflation Rate for the Period 1981-1985 = (Sum of Inflation Rate for All the Years)/Number of Years = (13%+9%+8%+6%+6%)/5 = 8.40%

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Part 2)

The average nominal interest rate expected to produce a 1% real risk-free return on 5-year Treasury securities is calculated as follows:

Average Nominal Interest Rate = Real Risk Free Rate + Average Inflation Premium + Maturity Risk Premium (MRP) = 1% + 8.40% + 0 = 9.40%

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Part 3)

The interest rate in January 1981 on bonds that mature in 1 year is arrived as below:

Interest Rate in January 1981 on Bonds that Mature in 1 Year = Real Risk Free Rate + Inflation Premium (IP) + Maturity Risk Premium (MRP) + Default Risk Premium (DRP) + Liquidity Premium (LP) = 3% + 13% + .1*1% + 0 + 0 = 16.10%

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Part 4)

The interest rate in January 1981 on bonds that mature in 2 years is arrived as below:

Interest Rate in January 1981 on Bonds that Mature in 2 Years = Real Risk Free Rate + Inflation Premium (IP) + Maturity Risk Premium (MRP) + Default Risk Premium (DRP) + Liquidity Premium (LP) = 3% + (13%+9%)/2 + .1*2% + 0 + 0 = 14.20%

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