1) To calculate an exponential smoothing forecast of demand, what values are req

Question

1) To calculate an exponential smoothing forecast of demand, what values are required?

a)alpha, number of periods, last actual demand

b)alpha, last forecast

c)last forecast, number of periods, averaging period

d)alpha, last forecast, number of periods e)alpha, last forecast, last actual value

2) Which of the following accuracy measures would be the best choice if the goal were to compare forecasts of time series whose units differed from one another (for example, one series in dollars and another in units produced)?

mean error

root mean squared error (RMSE)

mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)

total error

E) mean absolute deviation (MAD)

3) The Texas Department of Transportation (TXDOT) keeps records on the number of new driver's license applications on a weekly basis. Data for April and May of last year are given below

Using a five-week moving average, what is the forecast for the first week in June?

267.75

198.45

206.40

202.83

200.20

a)

mean error

b)

root mean squared error (RMSE)

c)

mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)

d)

total error

E) mean absolute deviation (MAD)

3) The Texas Department of Transportation (TXDOT) keeps records on the number of new driver's license applications on a weekly basis. Data for April and May of last year are given below

t Month Week Application 1 April 1 238 2 2 199 3 3 215 4 4 212 5 May 1 207 6 2 211 7 3 196 8 4 206 9 June 1 ?

Using a five-week moving average, what is the forecast for the first week in June?

a)

267.75

b)

198.45

c)

206.40

d)

202.83

e)

200.20

Explanation / Answer

Q1. e

To calculate an exponential smoothing forecast of demand, we require alpha, last forecast, last actual value. Going by the formulae:

F(n+1)- = (1-)Fn + An

where; F(n+1) : Forecasted value in period n+1

  : smoothing constant

Fn:  Forecasted value in period n

An: Actual value in period n

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